Education

Performance Metrics

Every metric shown on a strategy page is calculated from the daily portfolio values produced by the backtest. Here is exactly what each one means and how it is computed.

Return Metrics
How much the strategy made — in absolute terms and on an annualised basis.
Return

CAGR — Compound Annual Growth Rate

CAGR tells you the steady annual rate at which your portfolio would have had to grow to get from its starting value to its ending value. It smooths out year-to-year volatility into a single comparable number.

CAGR = ( final_value / initial_value ) ^ ( 1 / years ) − 1
// years = number of unique calendar years in the backtest period

A strategy that starts at ₹100 and ends at ₹200 over 5 years has a CAGR of roughly 14.9% per year, regardless of how bumpy the ride was in between.

> 15% — strong 8–15% — market-like < 8% — below inflation-adjusted returns
Return

Absolute Return

The total percentage gain or loss over the entire backtest period, without annualisation. Useful when comparing strategies run over the same fixed window.

Absolute Return = ( final_value − initial_value ) / initial_value × 100

A 300% absolute return over 10 years is less impressive than 300% over 3 years. Always read it alongside CAGR and the backtest duration.

Risk-Adjusted Metrics
Return alone does not tell the full story — these metrics show whether the returns were worth the risk taken.
Risk-Adjusted Return

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe Ratio measures how much excess return you earn for each unit of total volatility. A higher Sharpe means more return per unit of risk.

Sharpe = ( annual_return − risk_free_rate ) / annual_std
// risk_free_rate = live India 10Y G-Sec yield (fetched daily)
// annual_std = daily_std × √252

Daily percentage returns are annualised by multiplying by 252 trading days. The standard deviation of those daily returns, also annualised, forms the denominator.

> 1.0 — good 0.5–1.0 — acceptable < 0.5 — poor risk/reward
Downside Risk

Sortino Ratio

Like Sharpe, but penalises only downside volatility — days when the portfolio falls below the target return. Upside swings don't count against the score.

Sortino = ( annual_return − target ) / downside_deviation
// target = 5.0% (annualised)
// daily_target = target / 252
// downside_diff = min(daily_return − daily_target, 0)
// downside_deviation = √( mean(downside_diff²) ) × √252

A strategy that earns 20% CAGR with few large down-days will have a much higher Sortino than one that earns 20% with frequent drawdowns, even if their Sharpe ratios are similar.

> 1.5 — excellent downside protection 1.0–1.5 — solid < 1.0 — significant downside exposure
Active Return

Information Ratio (IR)

The Information Ratio measures how consistently the strategy outperforms a passive benchmark (here, a flat daily return equivalent to the live India 10Y G-Sec yield). The numerator is excess return; the denominator is tracking error — the volatility of those excess returns.

IR = ( annual_return − benchmark ) / tracking_error
// benchmark = live India 10Y G-Sec yield (fetched daily)
// daily_benchmark = benchmark / 252
// excess_returns = daily_return − daily_benchmark
// tracking_error = std(excess_returns) × √252

An IR above 0.5 is generally considered skilled active management. Below zero means the strategy underperformed the risk-free rate on a risk-adjusted basis.

> 0.5 — consistent alpha 0–0.5 — marginal edge < 0 — underperformed benchmark
Drawdown Metrics
How bad the losses got — and how quickly the portfolio recovered.
Risk

Maximum Drawdown

The largest peak-to-trough decline in portfolio value during the backtest. It answers: "what is the worst loss an investor would have experienced if they bought at the peak?"

Max Drawdown = min( ( value − running_peak ) / running_peak ) × 100
// running_peak = cumulative maximum portfolio value up to that day

A drawdown of −40% means at some point the portfolio lost 40% of its value from a prior high. Investors must be able to stay invested during recovery.

0 to −15% — low drawdown −15 to −30% — moderate worse than −30% — high risk
Risk-Adjusted Return

Calmar Ratio

The Calmar Ratio relates annual return to maximum drawdown. It tells you how much return you are getting for each unit of worst-case loss risk.

Calmar = CAGR / | max_drawdown |

A strategy earning 20% CAGR with a −10% max drawdown has a Calmar of 2.0 — much better than one earning 20% CAGR with a −40% drawdown (Calmar 0.5).

> 1.5 — excellent 0.5–1.5 — acceptable < 0.5 — drawdowns outweigh returns
Monte Carlo Simulation
"How risky is the journey, not just the destination?" — the bottom of every strategy page also shows three Monte-Carlo metrics that look at the path, not the endpoint.

Worst Possible Result At Risk

Across thousands of resampled return paths, the worst final outcome ftInvstr observed for this strategy. Helps you mentally rehearse the unlucky case — not just the expected case.

Reading: a value of −34.8% means in the worst simulated path the strategy ended 34.8% below where it started, even though its average path was profitable.

Worst Possible Drawdown

The deepest peak-to-trough drop seen across the Monte-Carlo set. Tells you how brutal the interim experience could have been, even if the final result was fine.

A backtest can finish flat but have suffered a −50% interim drawdown along the way. This number surfaces that.

Probability of Positive Return

The share of simulated paths that ended above the starting capital. A measure of how robust the strategy is to reordering of returns — not just the single historical sequence.

A 95%+ value says almost every reordered path was profitable. A 50% value warns that the strategy's win came from a lucky sequence of returns.
Quick Reference
All metrics at a glance.
Metric What it measures Good value
CAGR Annualised compounded return > 15%
Absolute Return Total gain over the full period Variable
Sharpe Ratio Return per unit of total volatility > 1.0
Sortino Ratio Return per unit of downside volatility > 1.5
Information Ratio Consistency of outperforming benchmark > 0.5
Max Drawdown Worst peak-to-trough loss > −15%
Calmar Ratio CAGR relative to max drawdown > 1.5
MC Worst Result Worst final outcome across simulated paths > −20%
MC Worst Drawdown Deepest interim drop across simulated paths > −35%
MC P(Positive) Share of simulated paths ending profitable > 80%

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